Analysis of sentiment in the European Central Bank’s social media activity during the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine War: A navigating crisis communicationAnálisis del sentimiento en la actividad del Banco Central Europeo en las redes sociales durante la pandemia del Covid-19 y la guerra de Ucrania: una comunicación de crisis navegante doxa.comunicación | nº 38, pp. 275-292 | 275 January-June of 2024ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978How to cite this article: Tasente, T.; Carataș, M. A. and Alabdullah, T. T. Y. (2024). Analysis of sentiment in the European Central Bank’s social media activity during the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine War: A navigating crisis communication. Doxa Comunicación, 38, pp. 275-292.https:/doi.org/10.31921/doxacom.n38a2051Tănase Tasente. Lecturer and ERASMUS coordinator at the Faculty of Law and Administrative Sciences at Ovidius University in Constanţa. He holds a bachelor's, master's, and doctoral degree in Communication Sciences and a master's degree in European Administration, Institutions, and Public Policies. With over 100 published scientic papers and 4 authored books on institutional communication through social media and public policy strategies, the author has made signicant contributions to the academic community. Additionally, he is the director of two international public relations companies, "Plus Communication and International Communication & PR", where they have overseen marketing, advertising, and public relations campaigns for renowned multinational companies. His combination of academic and professional experience has equipped them with the necessary skills and knowledge to excel in various elds of communication and administration. Ovidius University of Constanta, Romania[email protected]ORCID: 0000-0002-3164-5894Maria Alina Carataș. Lecturer at Ovidius at the Faculty of Law and Administrative Sciences, Ovidius University of Constanţa, Romania, teaching economics, public nance, public management and projects in the public sector. Her research interests include corporate governance, organizational culture, corporate social responsibility, sustainability, and economics. She has a PhD in accounting from the Bucharest University of Economic Studies and is a postdoctoral researcher at the same institution. While working as a researcher on a Interregional project about reducing marine litter from Black Sea Basin she got inspired to become more active in environment protection, and she pledged to empower and educate people to raise their awareness on their own blueprint, supporting sustainability and peace in all its forms.Ovidius University of Constanta, Romania[email protected] ORCID 0000-0002-4380-2893is content is published under Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License. International License CC BY-NC 4.0

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276 | nº 38, pp. 275-292 | January-June of 2024Analysis of sentiment in the European Central Bank’s social media activity during the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine War...ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978doxa.comunicaciónReceived: 10/08/2023 - Accepted: 17/11/2023 - Early access: 04/12/2023 - Published: 01/01/2024Recibido: 10/08/2023 - Aceptado: 17/11/2023 - En edición: 04/12/2023 - Publicado: 01/01/2024Abstract:To assess and comprehend the communication strategy used by the European Central Bank (ECB) throughout the Covid-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine, this study considers the crisis communication tactics of the ECB. e study analyses 11,781 tweets from the ECB's ocial Twitter account using sentiment analysis to look at how the Bank interacts with the public and how it uses adaptive communication strategies in these challenging times. is research innovatively employs the AFINN and NRC sentiment analysis methods to evaluate the ECB's crisis communication. NRC's use of a comprehensive lexicon for emotional identication complements the pre-computed sentiment ratings of AFINN. e ECB's use of positive, clear communication built public trust and underlines sentiment analysis's utility in strategic crisis communication. e study's detailed investigation oers insights for improving crisis communication plans for better public engagement and economic stability.Keywords: European Central Bank; crisis communication; sentiment analysis; social media engagement; public trust.Resumen:Para evaluar y comprender la estrategia de comunicación utilizada por el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) a lo largo de la pandemia del Covid-19 y la guerra en Ucrania, este estudio examina las tácticas de comunica-ción de crisis del BCE. El estudio analiza 11.781 tweets de la cuenta o-cial de Twitter del BCE utilizando el análisis de sentimientos para obser-var cómo interactúa el Banco con el público y cómo utiliza estrategias de comunicación adaptativas en estos tiempos difíciles. Esta investigación emplea de forma innovadora los métodos de análisis de sentimientos AFINN y NRC para evaluar la comunicación de crisis del BCE. El uso por parte de NRC de un léxico exhaustivo para la identicación emo-cional complementa las calicaciones de sentimiento precalculadas de AFINN. El uso por el BCE de una comunicación positiva y clara generó conanza en el público y subraya la utilidad del análisis de sentimientos en la comunicación estratégica de crisis. La investigación detallada del estudio ofrece ideas para mejorar los planes de comunicación de crisis con el n de mejorar la participación pública y la estabilidad econó-mica.Palabras clave: Banco Central Europeo; comunicación de crisis; análisis de sentimientos; participación en redes sociales; conanza pública.Tariq Tawfeeq Yousif Alabdullah. Associate professor at University of Basrah, from Iraq and he has PhD in accounting. He got his PhD from Malaysia from Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) from School of Management. Based on the Global AD Scientic Index, and within his major of accounting, nance, management and economics, He has got No 1 at the level of Iraqi universities , No. 6 in Asia and No 57 in the world, the link below shows this ranking: https://www.adscienticindex.com/scientist/tariq-tawfeeq-yousif-alabdullah/291502 He participated and presented 30 international conferences in Europe and in the USA. Some of the conferences were in Harvard University, Oxford University, University of Texas, and University of Rome. He is a member in the editorial boards in more than 70 international journals and conferences in Europe and USA.University of Basrah, Iraq[email protected] ORCID: 0000-0003-1494-69831. IntroductionAs we live in the digital age, social media has become an integral part of our lives, drastically reshaping communication dynamics worldwide. Its inuence is particularly felt in public communication, where institutions have had to adapt to this fast-paced, interactive communication landscape, particularly in crisis times (Bjola & Zaiotti, 2020). is paper seeks to examine the interplay between sentiment analysis in social media and the public communication of public institutions during crises.

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doxa.comunicación | nº 38, pp. 275-292 January-June of 2024Tănase Tasente, Maria Alina Carataș and Tariq Tawfeeq Yousif Alabdullah ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978| 277Sentiment analysis, or opinion mining, utilizes computational linguistics, text analysis, and natural language processing to discern and extract subjective information from source materials (Lyu, et al., 2021). When applied to social media, sentiment analysis allows us to capture the pulse of public opinion instantaneously, giving us unprecedented insights into the concerns, fears, and hopes of people, especially during crises (Mee, et al., 2021). Public institutions have begun to realize the importance of eective communication during crises. Traditionally, these institutions would employ “one-way” communication strategies, where they would disseminate information without much scope for public feedback. However, social media has changed the game. e rise of digital diplomacy, characterized by open, dialogic communication with the public, is evident, enabling a more participative public sphere (Bjola & Zaiotti, 2020). is transformation has been particularly crucial in crisis communication, where public sentiment can signicantly aect the course of crisis management eorts. Crisis communication refers to the exchange of information between the institution facing a crisis and the stakeholders who can aect or be aected by the crisis outcome (Baba & Nastase-Anysz, 2020). In this regard, social media has emerged as an eective tool for public institutions to manage crises. rough platforms like Twitter and Facebook, these institutions can not only disseminate vital information quickly but also gauge public sentiment towards the crisis and their management eorts (Arroyo Barrigüete, et al., 2022). Such feedback, which can be captured and analysed through sentiment analysis, can be invaluable in ne-tuning the institution’s crisis management strategies. Several scholars have explored dierent facets of this complex interplay between sentiment analysis, social media, and public communication during crises. However, there are still many aspects of this relationship that remain underexplored. is paper seeks to provide a comprehensive review of the existing literature in this domain, identify gaps in the current understanding, and propose directions for future research. It is essential to underscore that the digital landscape is rapidly evolving. erefore, while this review strives to be comprehensive, it also recognizes the transient nature of its ndings. As new platforms emerge and public institutions nd innovative ways to communicate during crises, future research will need to adapt and evolve accordingly. is paper aims to deepen our understanding of how public institutions use social media for crisis communication, the role of sentiment analysis in capturing public opinion during crises, and how these insights can inform and improve crisis management strategies. e ongoing interplay between these elements in our increasingly connected world makes this an exciting and dynamic eld of study.Based on the above explanation and argument, there are still many undiscovered facets of the complex interaction between sentiment analysis, social media, and public communication during crises, even though multiple experts have looked at various aspects of it. Although there is an important volume of material discussing the topic, there is still a critical need to discover and ll in knowledge gaps. It is essential to perform an exhaustive evaluation and analysis of the available literature to increase our knowledge in this area. By doing this, we may identify the areas that need more research, illuminate previously unrecognized factors, and eventually advance our comprehension of the way sentiment analysis aects social media involvement and public discourse during crises. is analysis is crucial to developing ecient crisis communication strategies and ensuring prompt and suitable reactions to lessen the negative eects of crises on public perception and attitude.
278 | nº 38, pp. 275-292 | January-June of 2024Analysis of sentiment in the European Central Bank’s social media activity during the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine War...ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978doxa.comunicación2. Literature reviewe digital age has revolutionised crisis communication, fundamentally changing the way information is disseminated and consumed. Social media platforms are now essential channels for government agencies to communicate their crisis management strategies and engage with the public. With immediate access and wide reach, these platforms facilitate real-time updates and foster a two-way dialogue between authorities and citizens. e use of digital communication tools facilitates transparency, speeds up the distribution of information and helps manage public perception during emergency situations.Extending this digital narrative, the study by Drescher et al. (2023) examines Twitter communication during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. e study shows that while German authorities maintained a more even-handed tone, independent experts favoured a more pessimistic tone, particularly during the more testing periods of the pandemic. is variation in tone illustrates the multiple perspectives and conicting ideas in the midst of a crisis.e literature shows the signicant involvement of the European Union (EU) and its agencies in social media, which is a fundamental channel for public communication during crises. Müller (2022) highlights the importance of EU agencies in attracting public attention on social media. is is inuenced by several factors, including the importance of the news, the longevity of the account and the level of interaction in the communication.During the pandemic, European leaders showed emotion in their communication, but according to Arroyo Barrigüete et al. (2022), contrary to expectations, there was no signicant dierence in empathy shown by leaders from countries dierently aected by COVID-19. Bunea & Nørbech (2022) analyse the European Commission’s strategic communication, which focused on reinforcing its reputation as a responsible policymaker rather than responding to public demand. Following this line of inquiry, Carvache-Franco et al. (2022) examine the language used on Twitter to discuss crisis and risk. eir ndings show that these discussions often focus on key areas such as the economy, health and government, suggesting that social media plays a crucial role in shaping public perceptions and response strategies in times of crisis.Furthermore, Nisch (2023) oers an analysis of President Zelensky’s tweets during the invasion of Ukraine. His ndings reveal a consistent positive sentiment and a call for unity and support, demonstrating the power of social media to foster solidarity in the face of adversity.Hancu-Budui et al (2020) conducted a study on the use of social media by European audit institutions and found that their presence on these platforms eectively promotes public services. However, they also found a lack of strategy for online engagement, particularly in relation to environmental and sustainability messaging.Building on this theme of digital engagement, MacKay et al. (2022) examined the use of Instagram by Canadian inuencers during the pandemic. eir research suggests that while inuencers did not make extensive use of Health Belief Model constructs, their posts still managed to generate varying levels of public interaction, demonstrating the nuances of inuencer impact during health crises.Sentiment analysis has been widely used to study public discourse during crises. Lyu et al. (2021) and Monselise et al. (2021) conducted sentiment analysis on discussions related to COVID-19 vaccination, highlighting the public’s concerns and changing attitudes towards vaccination. e results showed that there was a general increase in positive sentiment over time,
doxa.comunicación | nº 38, pp. 275-292 January-June of 2024Tănase Tasente, Maria Alina Carataș and Tariq Tawfeeq Yousif Alabdullah ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978| 279with trust being the primary emotion. Mee et al. (2021) conducted a sentiment analysis of Brexit discourse among UK MPs, revealing discreet dierences in language use across the political spectrum. Kovács et al. (2021) used sentiment analysis to examine public reactions on Twitter to the murder of Ján Kuciak, demonstrating how social media can reveal patterns in public sentiment that correspond to political events and narratives. Vrana et al. (2023) conducted an analysis of EU citizens’ Twitter discussions during the energy crisis of 2022-23. ey found that fear and sadness predominated, indicating mostly negative sentiments that remained consistent across languages.By way of comparison, Maghyereh and Abdoh (2022) examined how sentiment aected asset volatility during the nancial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. eir ndings highlight the inuential role of public sentiment in nancial markets, aecting dierent types of assets in dierent ways during times of crisis.Similarly, Vrana et al. (2023) analysed sentiment in Twitter conversations among EU citizens during the 2022-23 energy crisis. eir work shows a dominant tone of fear and sadness, reecting widespread public concern about energy prices and political developments, regardless of language barriers.Comparative studies such as Heidenreich et al. (2020) provide insights into migration discourse on social media, demonstrating the frequent and negative expression of migration issues by political factions on both the extreme left and right. Traber et al. (2020) examine the speeches of prime ministers during economic crises and nd an increased shift of blame to external actors when domestic unemployment rises. Tasente (2023) examines the online communication methods used by world leaders during the Ukraine crisis, highlighting the importance of a wide range of communication strategies in eectively engaging global audiences.e online reputation of global organisations, particularly the EU during the refugee crisis, is analysed by Bjola and Zaiotti (2020), who suggest the need for proactive online reputation management in crisis situations. Yoon and Chung (2020) conducted an evaluation of the European Union’s public diplomacy campaigns in Asia by analysing sentiment and semantic networks. eir study found that the EU’s social media content was ineective in generating public engagement, suggesting the need for a more targeted narrative development strategy.Nastase-Anysz and Baba’s (2020) research highlights the response of the public sector during crises and promotes the implementation of relationship marketing principles to strengthen crisis response and communication. In the eld of public health, Ali (2021) explores the function of sentiment analysis, particularly in the context of online learning during COVID-19, and proposes methodologies that can help public health ocials manage crises.ere is a clear gap in the current literature regarding the implementation of relationship marketing principles for crisis management and communication in the public sector. While there are studies, such as Nastase-Anysz & Baba (2020), that touch on this topic, a more thorough investigation is needed to understand how these principles can be used eectively during crises.erefore, social media sentiment analysis is an important asset for understanding and managing public discussions in critical situations. e literature conrms that social media play an important role in the crisis communication of public institutions. However, there is a need for strategic approaches that incorporate relationship marketing principles to improve the eectiveness of crisis communication.
280 | nº 38, pp. 275-292 | January-June of 2024Analysis of sentiment in the European Central Bank’s social media activity during the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine War...ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978doxa.comunicación3. Research methodTo conduct our research, we employed a data centralization approach using the platform Fanpagekarma.com. We extracted a total of 11,781 posts from the ocial Twitter page of the European Central Bank, spanning from October 28, 2013, to June 2, 2023. Additionally, to identify potential dierences in communication strategies, we divided the dataset into three periods: –Period 1: October 28, 2013, to March 10, 2020: is period can be characterized as one without major geopolitical incidents. –Period 2: March 11, 2020, to February 23, 2022: is period was marked by the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. –Period 3: February 24, 2022, to June 6, 2023: is period was characterized by the crisis generated by the invasion of the Rus-sian army in Ukraine and the ongoing war between the two belligerent parties.For the analysis of sentiment in online discourse, we utilized RStudio along with the following packages: tm, SentimentAnalysis and syuzhet. We conducted a discourse analysis using two distinct methods: the AFINN method and the NRC method.When assessing the attitude expressed in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) announcement, the usage of the AFINN method and the NRC approach has various advantages and is extremely helpful. First o, the AFINN approach oers a quantitative evaluation of sentiment through its pre-computed sentiment scores, enabling a quick and simple study of the ECB’s conversation (Lennox et al., 2020). With the use of this technique, researchers can recognize and follow changes in mood over time, giving them important insights into how well the ECB’s communication tactics performed throughout the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine war. e NRC technique, on the other hand, enables a more detailed analysis by collecting particular sentiments and emotions expressed in the ECB’s tweets thanks to its extensive lexicon (Ali, 2021). Researchers can determine the underlying emotions driving the ECB’s communication during crises thanks to this method’s qualitative knowledge of the feelings stated. e study provides a greater knowledge of the ECB’s adaptable communication strategies as well as the eects of particular emotional appeals on public involvement and trust by utilizing the NRC approach. e combination of the AFINN method and the NRC approach provides a thorough and in-depth analysis of sentiment in ECB communication. is combination oers insights into public opinion and response and enables a more detailed assessment of the eciency of the ECB’s crisis communication initiatives. e application of these two techniques improves the sentiment analysis’ overall accuracy and dependability, allowing researchers to reach solid ndings and inuence how the ECB and other institutions dealing with similar crises would communicate in the future.AFINN Method: e AFINN method is a widely used lexicon-based approach for sentiment analysis. It assigns a pre-dened sentiment score to each word in a text based on its emotional connotation. e AFINN lexicon consists of a list of words, each associated with a sentiment score ranging from -5 to +5, where negative scores indicate negative sentiment, and positive scores indicate positive sentiment. In our research, we applied the AFINN method using the SentimentAnalysis package in RStudio. e package calculates the sentiment score for each post by summing up the individual sentiment scores of the words present in the post. e resulting sentiment scores can be categorized as positive, negative, or neutral based on a predened threshold.NRC Method: e NRC (National Research Council) method is another lexicon-based approach for sentiment analysis. It focuses on the identication of emotions and sentiment expressed in text. e NRC lexicon consists of a comprehensive set of words associated with specic emotion categories, such as joy, anger, fear, sadness, and more.

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doxa.comunicación | nº 38, pp. 275-292 January-June of 2024Tănase Tasente, Maria Alina Carataș and Tariq Tawfeeq Yousif Alabdullah ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978| 281To implement the NRC method, we utilized the syuzhet package in RStudio. e package allows us to identify the dominant emotion category for each post by matching the words in the text with the emotion categories in the NRC lexicon. By counting the occurrences of words associated with each emotion category, we obtain a quantitative representation of the emotional content of the posts.By applying both the AFINN and NRC methods, we aimed to gain a comprehensive understanding of the sentiment and emotional characteristics of the Twitter posts from the European Central Bank during the specied time periods. ese methods provide valuable insights into the evolving communication strategies and public sentiment in response to dierent geopolitical events and crises.4. Results4.1. Sentiment Analysise European Central Bank’s (ECB) public discourse has always been a crucial determinant of market sentiment and economic trends. e ECB has been utilizing Twitter as a key tool to disseminate its policy messages and decisions. is report provides a comprehensive analysis of the ECB’s public discourse on Twitter from October 28, 2013, to March 10, 2020, using the AFINN method, which evaluates emotions on a scale from -5 to +5, with -5 representing strongly negative words and +5 representing strongly positive words.Figure 1. AFINN sentiment analysisMétodo NRC: El método NRC (Consejo Nacional de Investigación) es otro enfoque basado en léxicos para el análisis de sentimientos. Se centra en la identificación de emociones y sentimientos expresados en un texto. El léxico NRC consiste en un amplio conjunto de palabras asociadas a categorías específicas de emociones, como alegría, ira, miedo, tristeza, etc. Para aplicar el método NRC, utilizamos el paquete syuzhet de RStudio. El paquete nos permite identificar la categoría de emoción dominante en cada entrada comparando las palabras del texto con las categorías de emoción del léxico NRC. Contando las palabras asociadas a cada categoría de emoción, obtenemos una representación cuantitativa del contenido emocional de los mensajes. Mediante la aplicación de los métodos AFINN y NRC, pretendíamos obtener una comprensión exhaustiva del sentimiento y las características emocionales de las publicaciones en Twitter del Banco Central Europeo durante los periodos de tiempo especificados. Estos métodos proporcionan información valiosa sobre la evolución de las estrategias de comunicación y el sentimiento del público en respuesta a distintos acontecimientos geopolíticos y crisis. 4. Resultados 4.1 Análisis del sentimiento El discurso público del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) siempre ha sido un determinante crucial del sentimiento de los mercados y de las tendencias económicas. El BCE ha venido utilizando Twitter como herramienta clave para difundir sus mensajes y decisiones de política monetaria. Este informe ofrece un análisis exhaustivo del discurso público del BCE en Twitter desde el 28 de octubre de 2013, hasta el 10 de marzo de 2020, utilizando el método AFINN, que evalúa las emociones en una escala de -5 a +5, en la que -5 representa palabras muy negativas y +5 palabras muy positivas. Figura 1 - Análisis del sentimiento AFINN Fuente: elaboración propia Source: own elaboration
282 | nº 38, pp. 275-292 | January-June of 2024Analysis of sentiment in the European Central Bank’s social media activity during the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine War...ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978doxa.comunicaciónDuring the analysed period, the ECB’s Twitter messages were primarily comprised of words with positive connotations, accounting for 65.9% of the discourse. is positive tone was distributed as follows: +1 = 22.3%, +2 = 38.2%, +3 = 4.3%, +4 = 1%, and +5 = 0.1%. Conversely, the negative component constituted 34.1% of the discourse, with -1 = 12%, -2 = 18%, -3 = 4%, and -4 = 0.1%.is data suggest that the ECB used a predominantly positive vocabulary, perhaps to inspire condence, stability, and optimism, critical elements in central banking communication. e high percentage of moderately positive words (+2) might be linked to messages reassuring markets about the adequacy of monetary policy measures, the robustness of the Eurozone economy, or the soundness of nancial institutions.During the COVID-19 period, a notable shift occurred. e ECB’s discourse skewed towards positive words at 60% (+1 = 22.9%, +2 = 33.5%, +3 = 2.9%, +4 = 0.6%, +5 = 0.1%), while negative words increased to 40% (-1 = 12.4%, -2 = 20.8%, -3 = 6.8%, -4 = 0.1%). is shift could reect the ECB’s response to the pandemic-induced economic crisis. e increase in negative words may correspond to references to economic risks, uncertainties, or downturns. Meanwhile, the maintained positivity could represent eorts to reassure markets and citizens, emphasizing the ECB’s commitment to utilizing its toolkit to mitigate the pandemic’s economic impact.In the Ukrainian war period, the ECB’s communication slightly readjusted, focusing on positive words by 59.7% (+1 = 24.9%, +2 = 30.6%, +3 = 3.5%, +4 = 0.7%), and negative words by 40.3% (-1 = 11.5%, -2 = 25.1%, -3 = 3.7%). is adjustment suggests that while the ECB acknowledged geopolitical and economic risks (-2 words), it also continually stressed resilience, stability, and eective policy response (+1 and +2 words).In conclusion, the ECB’s Twitter discourse exhibits a predominantly positive tone across dierent periods, possibly reecting a strategic communication to foster condence and optimism amid uncertainty. Despite the variations during crisis periods, a resilient positive tone is maintained, suggesting a commitment to reassure markets about the ECB’s ability to respond eectively to crises.is discourse analysis is invaluable for understanding the ECB’s communication strategy and market sentiment trends. e AFINN method’s emotional scoring oers insights into the ECB’s tone during dierent periods, providing a window into the central bank’s communication eorts and potentially forecasting economic policy direction. It demonstrates how central banks can leverage social media platforms for eective communication and public engagement, essential in today’s digitized world.
doxa.comunicación | nº 38, pp. 275-292 January-June of 2024Tănase Tasente, Maria Alina Carataș and Tariq Tawfeeq Yousif Alabdullah ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978| 283Figure 2. NRC sentiment analysis Figura 2 - Análisis del sentimiento del NRC Fuente: elaboración propia Analizar el sentimiento del discurso de una institución pública, en particular en plataformas de redes sociales como Twitter, puede proporcionar una visión profunda de su estrategia de comunicación y su compromiso con sus grupos de interés. El discurso del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) desde el 28 de octubre de 2013 hasta el 10 de marzo de 2022, analizado mediante el método de análisis de sentimiento NRC, ofrece un ejemplo ilustrativo de cómo puede utilizarse el análisis de sentimiento para examinar la estrategia de comunicación de una institución durante diversos períodos, como la pandemia de Covid-19 y la guerra en Ucrania. El sentimiento general del discurso del BCE durante el período especificado, según se deduce de los datos proporcionados, parece ser mayoritariamente positivo. El BCE utilizó palabras que generaban un sentimiento positivo en el 32,7% de su discurso, mientras que las palabras que generaban un sentimiento negativo sólo representaron el 9,9% de su discurso. Esta preponderancia de las palabras de sentimiento positivo sugiere una estrategia de comunicación centrada en mantener un tono optimista, posiblemente para generar confianza, fomentar la seguridad e infundir una sensación de estabilidad entre sus interlocutores. Esta estrategia está en consonancia con el papel del BCE como principal institución financiera responsable del mantenimiento de la estabilidad financiera en la zona del euro. En cuanto a las emociones generadas por las palabras utilizadas en el discurso del BCE, la mayoría de ellas generaron sentimientos de confianza (21,3%) y anticipación (15,2%). Esto sugiere un esfuerzo estratégico por parte del BCE para generar credibilidad entre sus interlocutores y crear una expectativa de resultados positivos. Por otra parte, la presencia de miedo (6,1%), aunque no es dominante, sugiere que el BCE es consciente de las posibles amenazas y desafíos. El uso de Source: own elaborationAnalysing the sentiment of a public institution’s discourse, particularly on social media platforms such as Twitter, can provide deep insights into its communication strategy and its engagement with its stakeholders. e discourse of the European Central Bank (ECB) from October 28, 2013, to March 10, 2022, as analysed using the NRC sentiment analysis method, provides an illustrative example of how sentiment analysis can be used to examine an institution’s communication strategy during various periods, including the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.e overall sentiment of the ECB’s discourse over the specied period, as deduced from the data provided, appears to be largely positive. e ECB used words generating positive sentiment in 32.7% of its discourse, while words generating negative sentiment only made up 9.9% of its discourse. is preponderance of positive sentiment words suggests a communication strategy focused on maintaining an optimistic tone, possibly to build trust, encourage condence, and instil a sense of stability among its stakeholders. is strategy aligns with the ECB’s role as a leading nancial institution responsible for maintaining nancial stability in the Eurozone.When it comes to the emotions generated by the words used in the ECB’s discourse, the majority of the words generated feelings of trust (21.3%) and anticipation (15.2%). is suggests a strategic eort on the part of the ECB to build credibility among its stakeholders and create an expectation of positive outcomes. Furthermore, the presence of fear (6.1%), while not dominating, suggests the ECB’s awareness of potential threats and challenges. e use of such words may reect the ECB’s eorts to communicate the severity of certain situations and the importance of the measures taken in response.
284 | nº 38, pp. 275-292 | January-June of 2024Analysis of sentiment in the European Central Bank’s social media activity during the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine War...ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978doxa.comunicaciónDuring the Covid-19 period, there was a slight decrease in the proportion of positive sentiment words (27.4%) and an increase in the proportion of negative sentiment words (12.7%) in the ECB’s discourse. is could be a reection of the severe challenges posed by the pandemic, with the negative sentiments likely reecting the economic uncertainties and disruptions caused by the pandemic. However, the fact that positive sentiment words still outweighed negative sentiment words indicates the ECB’s ongoing commitment to maintaining an overall positive tone in its communication.Emotions generated during this period showed a decrease in trust and anticipation, but an increase in fear. is likely mirrors the anxiety and uncertainties prevalent during the pandemic. Interestingly, the proportion of sadness (4.5%) equalled that of joy, possibly reecting the dichotomy of the period - on one hand, the sadness stemming from the loss and disruption caused by the pandemic, and on the other, the joy possibly related to solidarity, resilience, and hope for recovery.During Ukraine war period, the proportion of positive sentiment words in the ECB’s discourse slightly increased to 27.8%, while negative sentiment words increased marginally to 12.3%. e slight increase in positive sentiment words may represent an attempt by the ECB to maintain positivity and stability in the face of a new crisis.In terms of emotions, trust remained the most generated emotion, albeit at a slightly higher level than during the Covid-19 period. is could suggest that, despite the new crisis, the ECB remained committed to maintaining trust with its stakeholders. Fear, however, decreased signicantly to 3.3%, while joy increased to 5.3%. is could indicate that despite the ongoing crisis, the ECB was projecting a reduced sense of fear and promoting more positivity in its communication.us, the sentiment analysis of the ECB’s Twitter discourse shows how the institution adapted its communication strategy to dierent periods, reecting the prevailing circumstances and its role as a stabilizing force in the European nancial system. Despite the crises, the ECB maintained an overall positive sentiment in its discourse, perhaps aiming to inspire condence, trust, and stability among its stakeholders. is analysis highlights the potential of sentiment analysis as a tool for understanding public institutions’ communication strategies and their attempts to engage with their stakeholders.4.2. Topics analysisPeriod 1: e present investigation examines the public communication of the European Central Bank (ECB) via its Twitter account during the period from October 28, 2013 to March 10, 2020, a time that can be characterized by an absence of major geopolitical disturbances. is analysis identied several thematic focuses from the bank’s tweets during this time.1. Cryptocurrencies and Digital Currencies: Several tweets focus on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, pointing out their volatile and speculative nature. ey also acknowledge the potential for a central bank digital currency. e ECB emphasizes a need for stable coins and a balance between privacy and anti-money laundering measures in any potential central bank digital currency.2. Leadership Transition: e change of leadership from Mario Draghi to Christine Lagarde as ECB President is covered. Both leaders express their views on monetary and scal policy and the role of the ECB in various contexts. For instance, Lagarde emphasizes climate change, while Draghi focuses on issues like the impact of negative interest rates on the pension industry.
doxa.comunicación | nº 38, pp. 275-292 January-June of 2024Tănase Tasente, Maria Alina Carataș and Tariq Tawfeeq Yousif Alabdullah ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978| 2853. Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: e tweets consistently mention the ECB’s monetary policy decisions, with changes in interest rates and the asset purchase program. Draghi specically discusses the importance of scal policy and the need for certain countries to implement reforms for sustainable growth.4. e Euro: Several tweets refer to the strength and popularity of the euro, with Draghi arming its irreversibility. e ECB also celebrates the euro’s 20th anniversary and releases new euro banknotes.5. Engagement with Public: e ECB actively encourages public interaction, inviting questions and thoughts via hashtags and sharing ECB-related humour. e #ECBYouthDialogue and #ECBListens portals are mentioned as platforms for dialogue.6. Climate Change: Lagarde highlights the role of central banks in ghting climate change, endorsing the EU Green Deal, and addressing environmental sustainability’s role in price stability.7. Banking Supervision and Regulation: e ECB conrms maintaining the Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek banks and addresses the need to complete the banking union. It also welcomes Andrea Enria as the new Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board.8. Outreach and Communication: e ECB shares behind-the-scenes glimpses, live links to press conferences, and interactive events like competitions. It also acknowledges technical issues with their Twitter account and celebrates reaching certain follower milestones. Period 2: e period spanning from March 11, 2020, to February 23, 2022, was a time of profound challenges, changes, and adaptations, triggered primarily by the COVID-19 pandemic. is paper aims to analyse how the European Central Bank (ECB) communicated these developments on its Twitter channel during this period. e study focuses on a series of key topics addressed by the ECB, which reveal the bank’s strategy and response to the crisis, as well as its vision for the future.1. Pandemic Response & Monetary Policy: e ECB has been taking comprehensive measures in response to the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, including the €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) and the provision of temporary collateral easing measures. ese initiatives aim to ensure liquidity and stability in the nancial markets and to support the euro area economies. e bank has also implemented negative interest rates as a tool to stimulate lending and boost the economy. ese policies are explained and defended by President Lagarde in various posts, in response to criticism and questions from the public.2. Digital Euro & Cryptocurrency: e ECB has embarked on a project to explore the potential of a digital euro. e discussions and updates regarding this topic suggest that the bank sees potential benets in a digital currency, such as universal acceptance and a risk-free means of payment. e bank also notes that a digital euro would complement physical cash rather than replace it. e ECB also discusses cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, but with a degree of caution, highlighting their potential risks.
286 | nº 38, pp. 275-292 | January-June of 2024Analysis of sentiment in the European Central Bank’s social media activity during the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine War...ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978doxa.comunicación3. Sustainable Finance & Climate Change: e ECB shows a signicant commitment to addressing climate change and promoting sustainable nance, as shown by the establishment of a climate change center and the acceptance of sustainability-linked bonds as collateral. e bank also shows its commitment to a carbon-neutral economy and proposes the creation of a green capital markets union.4. Inclusion & Diversity: Several posts highlight the ECB’s commitment to fostering diversity and inclusion within its own ranks and in the broader economic eld. Examples include setting gender targets, empowering women in economics and leadership positions, and announcing a Women in Economics Scholarship.5. Euro Area Expansion & Collaboration: e ECB shares updates about Bulgaria and Croatia’s progress towards adopting the euro and joining the banking union, reecting the ongoing integration and expansion of the euro area. e ECB also actively participates in international conferences, engaging in discussions with other central bank leaders.6. Public Engagement & Transparency: e ECB shows a commitment to engaging with the public and being transparent about its policies and strategies. is is reected in posts like the #ECBListens event, live press conferences and panel discussions, Q&A sessions with board members, and President Lagarde’s participation in online events and Twitter.7. e Future of the Euro: e ECB marks the 20th anniversary of the euro and emphasizes its importance in European identity and culture. At the same time, the bank explores new technologies and developments, such as digital currencies, that could shape the future of the euro.Period 3: e period stretching from February 24, 2022, to June 6, 2023, was deeply marked by geopolitical tensions, in particular the crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing war between the two parties. is paper seeks to analyse the discourse of the European Central Bank (ECB) as reected in its Twitter posts during this turbulent era. Eight central themes were identied in the ECB’s posts, each reecting the bank’s response to the crisis, as well as broader trends in its policies and communication strategies.1. Ination and Interest Rates: Numerous tweets highlight the ECB’s commitment to returning ination to its target of 2%. is includes tweets on Valentine’s Day and in multiple other instances, indicating ECB’s decision to raise interest rates to tame ination. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasizes on multiple occasions the importance of combating ination and delivering price stability. ere are also updates on monetary policy decisions, including interest rate hikes and the intention to continue raising rates until ination returns to its 2% target. Furthermore, the ECB holds discussions with civil society representatives to address concerns about ination and explain the actions being taken to combat it.2. Cryptoassets and Digital Euro: ECB’s tweets show a keen interest in the crypto industry and a potential digital euro. ere’s mention of Bitcoin’s stabilization and the need for regulation and taxation in the crypto industry, treating unbacked digital asset trading as gambling activities. e possibility of introducing a digital euro to protect people’s freedom to pay is also considered. Concerns are expressed regarding the riskiness of crypto-assets and their potential impact on nancial stability. Updates are provided on the progress and development of the potential digital euro.
doxa.comunicación | nº 38, pp. 275-292 January-June of 2024Tănase Tasente, Maria Alina Carataș and Tariq Tawfeeq Yousif Alabdullah ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978| 2873. Women’s Equity: On Valentine’s Day and International Women’s Day, the ECB emphasizes the need for equity in supporting women’s success and calls for embracing equity by providing women with the necessary support.4. Climate Change: e ECB adopts coordinated measures to incorporate climate change considerations in corporate bond purchases, collateral framework, disclosure requirements, and risk management. ECB ocials, including President Christine Lagarde, speak about addressing climate change in monetary policy operations.5. Euro Area and EU Membership: e ECB welcomes Croatia as its 20th member of the euro area. Also, it highlights strong support for the euro among the population and the importance of keeping central bank money at the heart of the nancial system.6. Financial Stability and Banking Sector: ECB President Christine Lagarde underscores the resilience of the euro area banking sector and the ECB’s ability to provide liquidity support when needed. Central bank action is coordinated to enhance the provision of US dollar liquidity.7. Brexit: e ECB discusses the impact of Brexit on the UK economy, focusing on the negative eects on labour supply and trade.8. Annual Accounts and Economic Growth: e ECB announces its annual accounts, highlighting the growth of its balance sheet and the impact of rising interest rates. It also presents economic growth outlooks for the euro area and discusses ination trends and projections.5. DiscussionBetween 2013 and early 2020, the European Central Bank (ECB) seemed to welcome the growing impact of digitalisation on monetary policy and nancial stability. is was underlined by its research into digital currencies. is period was also marked by a smooth leadership transition and the launch of the digital euro initiative. is development reects the impact of the digital age on crisis communication strategies, as government agencies increasingly use social media to disseminate valuable information and promote public engagement. is phenomenon has also been identied by Müller (2022). e ECB’s involvement in these areas illustrates a broader institutional appreciation of social media as an important channel for policy communication and public debate.In the second period, from March 2020 to February 2022, the ECB shifted its focus in response to the unforeseen demands of the COVID-19 pandemic. e themes of sustainable nance and digital currency become more prominent, in line with the ECB’s commitment to inclusivity and adaptability in times of global economic disruption. e Bank’s strategic communication during this period is consistent with the ndings of Arroyo Barrigüete et al. (20-22), who analysed the emotional content of European leaders’ communication. eir ndings suggest that although the pandemic evoked an emotional response, the level of empathy conveyed did not have a direct correlation with the severity of the impact of the pandemic.e third period, spanning February 2022 to June 2023, is underscored by the ECB’s communication amidst the geopolitical tensions triggered by the crisis in Ukraine. Here, the ECB’s strategic communication eorts, which were geared towards
288 | nº 38, pp. 275-292 | January-June of 2024Analysis of sentiment in the European Central Bank’s social media activity during the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine War...ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978doxa.comunicaciónaddressing inationary pressures and ensuring nancial stability, appear to align with Tasente’s (2023) insights on the various communication strategies deployed during geopolitical disturbances. e ECB’s consistent emphasis on digital currencies and sustainable nance during this tumultuous period further suggests an institution attempting to maintain a trajectory of modernization and responsiveness amid a landscape of profound uncertainty.roughout these intervals, the ECB’s utilization of Twitter to maintain a predominantly positive communicative stance, even in the face of crises, exemplies the central bank’s understanding of the critical role that sentiment plays in public perception and condence. is approach mirrors academic ndings on sentiment analysis, such as those by Lyu et al. (2021), which underscore the importance of tone in shaping public discourse during crises.Moreover, the ECB’s strategic communication tactics, as derived from sentiment and thematic analysis, oer a nuanced reection of the evolving landscape of crisis communication in the digital age. e ECB’s eorts are emblematic of an institution that not only adapts to changing circumstances but does so in a sophisticated dialogue with the public, balancing its operational transparency with the strategic imperatives of relationship marketing. In doing so, the ECB’s communication activities are in line with the academic discourse that emphasises the need for strategic, empathetic and adaptive communication to manage public sentiment and maintain economic stability in times of crisis.6. ConclusionsA study of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Twitter activity over almost a decade illustrates the importance of lexical accuracy and sentiment in managing public debate on sensitive economic issues. As an institution responsible for Europe’s monetary policy, scal rules and ination, the consequences of its communicative preferences go beyond the dissemination of information and aect economic perceptions and balances.e data show that the ECB is adept at managing market sentiment, which has a signicant impact on public opinion and market dynamics. e institution adopts a positive tone in its communication, which is a deliberate strategy to ensure public condence and market stability. e consistent optimism is part of a broader strategic objective to instil condence in the institution’s ability to manage changing economic conditions.However, the research also acknowledges the ECB’s ability to adjust its tone in response to the severity of the economic turmoil. ere is a marked increase in the use of cautious and serious language in times of crisis, suggesting a measured strategy that balances optimism with the hard facts of economic hardship.e ECB’s precision in addressing complex economic issues deserves recognition. e institution’s discourse is characterised by clarity and purpose, which is evident in all its communications. Such meticulousness serves to clarify policy choices, manage public expectations and strengthen condence in the ECB’s policy orientations.Moreover, an analysis of the topics addressed in the ECB’s tweets reveals a strategic alignment with the ever-changing economic scenarios. is adaptability in the ECB’s narrative strategy highlights its ability to respond eectively to emerging challenges while remaining relevant to its audience.
doxa.comunicación | nº 38, pp. 275-292 January-June of 2024Tănase Tasente, Maria Alina Carataș and Tariq Tawfeeq Yousif Alabdullah ISSN: 1696-019X / e-ISSN: 2386-3978| 289e ECB’s commendable approach to public engagement, as evidenced by its enthusiasm for open dialogue, sets a benchmark for others to follow. is interactive approach not only strengthens the link between policymakers and the public, but also demonstrates the institution’s commitment to transparency and accountability. Its implementation can serve as a benchmark for similar institutions grappling with the complexities of communication in today’s digital age.In conclusion, the analysis of the ECB’s Twitter discourse highlights the importance of word choice and sentiment in the public communication of a European institution dealing with sensitive economic issues. It underlines the need to maintain a positive tone in order to inspire condence and optimism, while reecting the reality of economic conditions during crises. e study illustrates the importance of clear, deliberate communication on complex economic issues and the value of adaptability, public engagement, and transparency in institutional communication strategies. e ECB’s approach to communication provides valuable lessons for other public institutions and contributes to a broader understanding of the role of sentiment analysis in evaluating and guiding institutional communication strategies. e ndings oer a solid foundation for further research into the impact of communication strategies on market sentiment and economic stability.7. Acknowledgementsis article has been translated into Spanish to Mihaela Panait whom we are grateful for her work.8. Specic contributions of each authorName and SurnameConception and design of the workTănase TasenteMethodologyMaría Alina Carataș Data collection and analysisTănase TasenteDiscussion and conclusionsTariq Tawfeeq Yousif AlabdullahDrafting, formatting, version review and approvalMaría Alina Carataș9. Conict of intereste authors declare that there is no conict of interest contained in this article.
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